Ingufu zisubirwamo zizagera ku iterambere mu 2021, ariko ibibazo byo gutanga biri hafi

Raporo y’isoko ry’ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa n’ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu, 2021 izahagarika amateka y’izamuka ry’ingufu zishobora kwiyongera ku isi.Nubwo ibiciro byazamutse cyane kubicuruzwa byinshi (bivuga guhuza kutagurisha, kugurisha ibintu byinshi bifite ibicuruzwa kandi bikoreshwa mubikorwa byinganda n’ubuhinzi no kubikoresha) bishobora kwinjira mukuzenguruka, birashobora kubangamira inzibacyuho yo kwisukura imbaraga mu gihe kizaza.

Muri raporo havuzwe ko biteganijwe ko mu mpera zuyu mwaka, amashanyarazi mashya azagera kuri watt 290.Muri 2021, bizasenya amateka yo kongera amashanyarazi mashya yashyizweho umwaka ushize.Umubare mushya wuyu mwaka urenze ibyateganijwe n’ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu (IEA) mu mpeshyi.Icyo gihe IEA yavuze ko "gukura cyane bidasanzwe" byaba "bishya bisanzwe" ku mbaraga zishobora kongera ingufu.Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu cyavuzwe muri Ukwakira 2020 “World Energy Outlook” raporo ivuga ko ingufu z'izuba ziteganijwe kuba “umwami mushya w'amashanyarazi.”

Imirasire y'izuba izakomeza kwiganza muri 2021, biteganijwe ko izamuka rya GW hafi 160.Ifite igice kirenga kimwe cya kabiri cy’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu muri uyu mwaka, kandi ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu cyizera ko iyi nzira izakomeza mu myaka itanu iri imbere.Nk’uko raporo nshya ibigaragaza, mu 2026, ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu za 95% z’amashanyarazi ku isi.Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kandi kirahanura ko hazabaho kwiyongera guturika kubyara ingufu z'umuyaga wo mu nyanja, zishobora gukuba inshuro eshatu mugihe kimwe.Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu cyavuze ko mu 2026, ingufu z'amashanyarazi zishobora kuvugururwa ku isi zishobora kuba zingana na lisansi y’ibinyabuzima hamwe n’amashanyarazi ya kirimbuzi hamwe.Iri ni ihinduka rikomeye.Muri 2020, ingufu zisubirwamo zizaba 29% gusa byamashanyarazi kwisi.

Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, nubwo bimeze bityo, haracyari "igihu" mubiteganijwe bishya byikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kubyerekeye ingufu zishobora kubaho.Izamuka ryibiciro byibicuruzwa, ubwikorezi ningufu byose bibangamira ibyiringiro byingufu zishobora kongera ingufu.Nk’uko ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu kibitangaza, kuva mu ntangiriro za 2020, igiciro cya polysilicon yakoreshejwe mu gukora imirasire y'izuba cyikubye kane.Ugereranije na 2019, igiciro cyishoramari cyingirakamaro-nini ku nyanja n’amashanyarazi akomoka ku zuba cyiyongereyeho 25%.

Byongeye kandi, ukurikije irindi sesengura ryakozwe na Rystad Energy, kubera izamuka ry’ibikoresho n’ubwikorezi, kimwe cya kabiri cy’imishinga mishya ikoreshwa n’izuba riteganijwe gushyirwa mu bikorwa mu 2022 irashobora gutinda cyangwa guhagarikwa.Niba ibiciro byibicuruzwa bikomeje kuba hejuru mumwaka utaha, imyaka itatu kugeza kuri itanu yinyungu ziva mumirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga, birashobora kuba impfabusa.Mu myaka mike ishize, igiciro cyamafoto yerekana amafoto yagabanutse cyane, bituma ingufu zizuba zigenda neza.Igiciro cy'ingufu z'izuba cyaragabanutse kiva kuri US $ 30 kuri watt mu 1980 kigera kuri US $ 0.20 kuri watt muri 2020. Umwaka ushize, ingufu z'izuba nizo zihenze cyane z'amashanyarazi mu bice byinshi by'isi.

Umuyobozi mukuru wa IEA, Fatih Birol, mu kiganiro n'abanyamakuru yagize ati: “Ibiciro biri hejuru y’ibicuruzwa n’ingufu tubona uyu munsi byazanye ibibazo bishya mu nganda zishobora kongera ingufu.Kuzamuka kw'ibiciro bya peteroli na byo byatumye ingufu z'amashanyarazi zirushanwa kurushaho. ”Umubare munini w’ubushakashatsi werekanye ko hagati yikinyejana rwagati, imyuka ihumanya ikirere ituruka ku gutwika ibicanwa bigomba kuvaho burundu kugira ngo hirindwe imihindagurikire y’ikirere.Ikigo cyavuze ko kugira ngo iyi ntego igerweho, ubushobozi bushya bwo kongera ingufu z'amashanyarazi bugomba kwiyongera hafi inshuro ebyiri igipimo cyari giteganijwe n'ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu mu myaka itanu iri imbere.