Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu (IEA) cyavuze ko nubwo ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byazamutse ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’inganda, iterambere ry’amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba muri uyu mwaka biracyateganijwe kwiyongera 17%.
Mu bihugu byinshi ku isi, imishinga ikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba itanga igiciro gito cy’amashanyarazi mashya, cyane cyane mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro bya gaze.IEA iteganya ko muri 2021, 156.1GW yo gushyiramo amashanyarazi bizongerwaho kwisi yose.
Ibi byerekana inyandiko nshya.Nubwo bimeze bityo, iyi shusho iracyari hasi yandi majyambere hamwe nibiteganijwe.Ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi BloombergNEF kivuga ko muri uyu mwaka hazashyirwaho 191GW y’ingufu nshya z’izuba.
Ibinyuranye, isoko ya IHS iteganijwe gushyirwaho izuba muri 2021 ni 171GW.Gahunda yiterambere rito ryasabwe nishyirahamwe ryubucuruzi SolarPower Europe ni 163.2GW.
IEA yavuze ko inama ya COP26 y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere yatangaje intego nziza y’ingufu zisukuye.Hamwe n'inkunga ikomeye ya politiki ya leta n'intego z'ingufu zisukuye, izuba riva ku mirasire y'izuba “rikomeje kuba isoko yo kongera ingufu z'amashanyarazi.”
Nk’uko iyi raporo ibigaragaza, mu 2026, ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu zingana na 95% by’ubushobozi bw’amashanyarazi ku isi hose, naho izuba rikoresha amashanyarazi yonyine rikaba rifite kimwe cya kabiri.Ubushobozi bwo gufotora bwuzuye buziyongera kuva kuri 894GW uyumwaka bugere kuri 1.826TW muri 2026.
Hashingiwe ku iterambere ryihuse, ingufu z'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ku isi zizakomeza kwiyongera, zigere kuri GW hafi 260 mu 2026. Amasoko akomeye nk'Ubushinwa, Uburayi, Amerika, n'Ubuhinde afite umuvuduko mwinshi w'iterambere, mu gihe amasoko akomeye nka Afurika yo munsi y'Ubutayu bwa Sahara no mu burasirazuba bwo hagati na byo byerekana imbaraga nyinshi zo gukura.
Umuyobozi mukuru wa IEA, Fatih Birol, yavuze ko kwiyongera k'uyu mwaka ingufu zishobora kongera amateka, byerekana ko ikindi kimenyetso kigaragara mu bukungu bushya bw'ingufu ku isi.
Ati: "Ibiciro biri hejuru y’ibicuruzwa n’ingufu tubona muri iki gihe bitera imbogamizi nshya mu nganda zishobora kongera ingufu, ariko izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicanwa na byo bituma ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu mu guhangana."
IEA yanasabye gahunda yihuse yiterambere.Iyi gahunda ivuga ko guverinoma yakemuye ibibazo byo kwemerera, guhuza imiyoboro, no kutagira umushahara, ikanatanga inkunga igamije politiki yo guhinduka.Ukurikije iyi gahunda, 177.5GW yizuba ryamashanyarazi izakoreshwa kwisi yose uyumwaka.
Nubwo ingufu z'izuba zigenda ziyongera, biteganijwe ko imishinga mishya y’ingufu zishobora kongera kuba munsi y’umubare ukenewe kugira ngo isi igere ku ntego ya zeru hagati y’iki kinyejana rwagati.Ukurikije iyi ntego, hagati ya 2021 na 2026, impuzandengo y’ubwiyongere bw’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu zikubye hafi inshuro ebyiri ibintu nyamukuru byasobanuwe muri raporo.
Raporo y'ibendera rya World Energy Outlook yashyizwe ahagaragara na IEA mu Kwakira irerekana ko mu ikarita ya IEA ya 2050 net zero yoherejwe na zero, impuzandengo y’umwaka ku isi kwiyongera kwifoto y’izuba kuva 2020 kugeza 2030 bizagera kuri 422GW.
Kwiyongera kw'ibiciro bya silikoni, ibyuma, aluminium, n'umuringa ni ikintu kibi ku biciro by'ibicuruzwa
IEA yavuze muri raporo iheruka kuvuga ko kuri ubu, izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ryashyize ingufu hejuru ku giciro cy’ishoramari.Itangwa ry'ibikoresho fatizo no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi ku masoko amwe n'amwe byongereye izindi ngorane ku bakora amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba mu gihe gito.
Kuva mu ntangiriro za 2020, igiciro cya polysilicon yo mu rwego rwa Photovoltaque cyikubye inshuro enye, ibyuma byiyongereyeho 50%, aluminiyumu yiyongereyeho 80%, umuringa wiyongera 60%.Byongeye kandi, ibiciro by'imizigo biva mu Bushinwa bijya mu Burayi no muri Amerika y'Amajyaruguru nabyo byazamutse cyane, rimwe na rimwe bikubye inshuro icumi.
IEA ivuga ko ibicuruzwa n'ibicuruzwa bitwara hafi 15% by'igiciro cyose cyo gushora imirasire y'izuba.Ukurikije igereranyo cyibiciro byibicuruzwa kuva muri 2019 kugeza 2021, igiciro rusange cyishoramari ryibikoresho byamashanyarazi bifotora bishobora kwiyongera hafi 25%.
Kuzamuka kw'ibicuruzwa n'imizigo byagize ingaruka ku biciro by'amasezerano y'amasoko ya leta, kandi amasoko nka Espagne n'Ubuhinde byabonye ibiciro by'amasezerano muri uyu mwaka.IEA yavuze ko izamuka ry’ibiciro bikenerwa mu mashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi bitera ikibazo abaterankunga batsinze amasoko kandi bateganya ko ibiciro by’amasomo bizakomeza kugabanuka.
Nk’uko IEA ibigaragaza, kuva 2019 kugeza 2021, hafi 100GW y’amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y’izuba n’umuyaga watsindiye amasoko ariko ukaba utarashyirwa mu bikorwa bahura n’ihungabana ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa, bikaba bishobora gutinda gutangira umushinga.
Nubwo bimeze gurtyo, ingaruka zizamuka ryibicuruzwa kubisabwa kubushobozi bushya ni bike.Guverinoma ntizigeze zihindura politiki zikomeye zo guhagarika amasoko, kandi kugura ibigo birandika indi mwaka.
Nubwo hari ikibazo cy’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa birebire birebire, IEA yavuze ko niba ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa n’imizigo byoroha mu gihe cya vuba, icyerekezo cyo kugabanuka ku giciro cy’amafoto y’izuba kizakomeza, ndetse n’ingaruka ndende kuri iki cyifuzo cy’ikoranabuhanga. birashoboka ko nayo izaba nto cyane.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukuboza-07-2021